Wednesday, June 23, 2010

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PARAGUAY ECONOMIC GROWTH AND NATURAL RESOURCES

(Prof. K. Miracle Páez)
World Bank recently published its report "Global Economic Prospects" which predicts three consecutive years of economic growth Paraguay in the period 2010-2012 at annual rates would range 5%. Negligible performance.
As a student of economics I soon learned that high growth is not always accompanied by the greatest possible, ie effective improvements in the level of life for all people or at least the majority and the need to adopt policies that make better economic performance in terms of numbers is reflected in a qualitative improvement for the inhabitants of a country.
In these situations I ask myself what to do for this boom in the economy will lead to further development at national level?
Obviously three years of growth are not sufficient to turn Paraguay into a developed country. The issue is not that. What is sought to make is to seize opportunities that will arise in this period to move towards a better short and long term.
Fortunately for answering these questions has a solid economic theory that explains the recipes to be used to lead a nation to higher levels of development. Paul Samuelson (Nobel laureate 1970) recommended action in four areas: natural resources, human resources, capital formation and technological change and innovation.
Regarding natural resources, the aforementioned author claims that the land is presented as the most important natural resource for a developing country. Therefore calls for appropriate use of the same care all regard to the conservation, use of fertilizers and crop itself. Also concerned about the land, arguing that if the farmer owns the land has greater incentive to invest in capital and technology and increase the productivity of the same.
Noting the case of Paraguay, a country with abundant and fertile soil, suggest strong support for rural producers both large and small to provide political stability and legal security, fair taxes, affordable credit, foreign policy to seek greater opportunities business and finally, perhaps the most difficult of all tasks, a more equitable distribution of land.
At this point many may ask, if you know what to do why not do it. That's not an economic issue is a political issue and as such, in a democracy like ours should be resolved within the framework of the polls but even this simple premise has its serious complications.

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El Niño: characteristics and effects

(Prof. K. Miracle Páez)
The climate phenomenon El Niño has important consequences for weather conditions in many parts of the world.
This year the phenomenon began in June or July and according to predictions by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) will continue until the first quarter of 2010.
El Niño is characterized by a warming of surface temperatures and subsurface tropical Pacific Ocean and equatorial central and eastern areas.
was named in the nineteenth century by Peruvian fishermen who noticed its effects during Christmas. Occurs with a frequency that varies between two to five years.
The period of greatest intensity of El Niño occurred between the years 1997 and 1998 when water temperature increased 5 ° C, while this episode of the same is described with weak to moderate increases ranging from 0.5 º to 1 º C.
Among the areas most affected by the Child include the south and east Asia, where droughts will be more intense due to the weakening of the wet or monsoon winds. The drought in east Africa also will worsen. Furthermore, droughts will spread throughout the Australian plains while Europe will not be affected.
In Latin America, it is likely that this time the phenomenon does not cause the damage he left in 1997 without But countries in this region are alert to the reappearance of the phenomenon. The highest rainfall in certain regions of Argentina and Brazil tend to disturb the crops and cause deadly mudslides.
In the specific case of Paraguay, El Niño is characterized by rainfall of varying magnitude and intensity and at the same time the temperature has a tendency to be higher due to the prevalence of moisture in the atmosphere.
There is no useful estimates after March 2010. The chances of that date after an episode of El Niño or La Niña or near-neutral conditions are simply a matter of climatological statistics.
Finally, El Niño also has a positive side, for example, due to the presence of this hurricane season to begin in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean and move to the Caribbean and North America will be weaker. In the same vein, try to charities winter rainfall in the arid Southwest United States and reduces the risk of fires in Florida.

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TRADE BALANCE - Paraguay: Comparative and May 2009/2010

(Prof. Andrew Laconich)
imports rose nearly 50% to May/2010
The national imports made between January and May last increased nearly 50% compared to same period last year , according to the Central Bank of Paraguay. The final value of this year reached U.S. $ 3,428.1 million , compared to the year 2009 totaled (in the period studied) U.S. $ 2,296.1, an increase of 49.3% .

We must remember however, consider that last year the global economic and financial crisis was in full development, and political uncertainty of the new government.

The cumulative total imports, recorded in May 2010 , the intermediate goods (26.5%) and capital (machinery, industrial machinery, etc.) ( 40.4%) represent a 67% (U.S. $ 2,295.1 million). On the other hand, consumer goods account for 33% of the total operations (U.S. $ 1,132.9 million) . "Official statistics therefore realize that the country imported a lower percentage of consumer goods and a high percentage of goods intermediate and capital, the latter being mostly used in production, industry, agriculture and others, "indicating a positive trend to further increases in production in addition to the replacement of depreciated capital.

On the other hand, states that the total accumulated imports last month, the 59% Continental came from China and around the world, while the Mercosur 41%. As for the region, from Brazil account for 59%, while 37% from Argentina, Uruguay and 4%.

As exports last May, reached a total of U.S. $ 1.977 million , which recorded a 40% increase compared to U.S. $ 1,412.6 million in the comparable period last year. However, they also show a large deficit in trade balance.

The teacher and students of the chair shall ascertain the value of analytical instrument that is studied in Bolillas II to V mainly. Recommended round table on its impact on both the demand and aggregate supply.

Monday, June 21, 2010

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ARGENTINA -

(*) NOTE HOLDER Chair: This information should be used for assessing the formation of aggregate supply price, as exogenous international market but with broad impact on aggregate demand Paraguay, especially in the Alto Parana region.
BBC Mundo, Argentina


Argentina, the third largest producer of soybeans in 2010 reached a record harvest of 55 million tonnes.

This was announced on Friday the Grain Exchange Buenos Aires, explained that with the 99.7% of the trite, and accumulated more than 54.8 million tons of soybeans.
is the largest crop since the introduction of the soybean in the country in 1969.
Experts on agricultural issues to the BBC said today that soy production covers about 20 million hectares, equivalent to two thirds of all plantings in Argentina.

In 2009, 70% of what men and women spent field the crop was destined.

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However, specialists warned that the growth of soybean counterpart is a sharp drop in the production of other grains, especially wheat , corn and sunflower.

The main agricultural institutions of Argentina also announced a sharp decline in livestock production.
According to Sociedad Rural Argentina (SRA) in the near future country will import beef.
Meanwhile, in soybean experts point out that many producers will retain their merchandise waiting for the price of growing up in the foreign market.
Argentina exports is estimated that over 98% of its production, since domestic consumption of oilseeds is almost nonexistent.